4 Bleak New Year’s Predictions


It’s a new year, and already the world’s off to a rough start. Last night I found myself telling a friend about my predictions for 2010. They’re bleak. Maybe I have a fascination with the macabre and apocalyptic. But remember, if any of them turn out to be true, you saw it here first.

Word of caution: I am not an expert in foreign affairs or political science. I’m writing this so I can claim bragging rights later.

  • Something’s gotta give in Iran. Iran’s six-month long protests are getting worse and worse. I ve seen videos of demonstrators fighting police and burning cars and of police running over a man lying in the street. It all started with the controversial 2009 presidential election results when a former Iranian prime minister, Mir Hussein Moussavi, ran against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Moussavi supporters believed the election was fixed against them. I won’t recap the events since you can find the Times sums them up nicely. The next two months will be crucial in determining how the conflict progresses. The 31st anniversary of the exile of the Shah of Iran is coming up in mid-January, and more protestors are likely to take to the streets for the occasion. The government will either crackdown hard or the demonstrations will gain steam with higher profile people jumping in revealing a bigger schism within the nation.

  • More American youth influenced by Islamic fundamentalists. The numbers in the two months alone show an increasing trend: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, Nidal Malik Hasan, the 5 Virginia kids detained in Pakistan with plans to join a militant group, etc.

  • Increased breadth of “war on terror.”This is long-term. We’ll see it more likely in the next decade.

  • Erosion of American citizens’ rights as the feds increasingly struggle to identify extremist individuals who hold American citizenship.

List your own bleak or happy predictions below.